Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets are 7.5-point favorites at home against the winless Golden State Warriors on Monday, a number that reflects both Denver’s edge and the uncertainty around a short-handed matchup. The Warriors have not won yet in the 2026-27 season, and they arrive with Jimmy Butler, Moses Moody and Kristaps Porzingis all out.
The line is drawing attention because Jokic keeps creating the kind of statistical margin that can move a game before it starts. He just finished a 35-point, 15-rebound, 10-assist triple-double in Denver’s win over the New Orleans Pelicans over the weekend, and he has averaged 30.5 points, 13.1 rebounds and 9.3 assists in his last 10 games against Golden State. In seven of those matchups, he has pulled down 12 or more rebounds.
Golden State’s early problems explain why the market has leaned so heavily toward Denver. Through three games, the Warriors rank 26th in the league in net rating, 19th in rebound percentage and 15th in opponent rebounds per game, numbers that point to the same weakness Jokic has punished for years: missed stops on the glass and too much pressure on every possession. Golden State also remains without Kristaps Porzingis, leaving the frontcourt thinner at exactly the wrong time.
Denver is not coming in spotless, either. The Nuggets have had a mixed start, losing to the Oklahoma City Thunder and failing to reach 90 points before their overtime win over the New Orleans Pelicans, while Alpha Diallo and Cameron Johnson are doubtful and Spencer Jones and Julian Strawther are ruled out for this game. Even so, the home team is still laying more than a touchdown, a sign that the betting market trusts Jokic to keep carrying the load.
That leaves Monday night with a simple shape and a sharp edge. If Golden State cannot survive the minutes when Jokic takes over the paint and the boards, the spread looks justified; if the Warriors can hang around despite the injuries and the early-season numbers, it will say more about Denver’s uneven start than any pregame line can capture.
