A storm-force low pressure area is taking shape tonight off the southeast coast of the United States, and it is still non-tropical. It is expected to drift slowly and erratically for the next couple of days before its path becomes more important than its name.
That is why the forecast is drawing attention now. The system has a near 0% chance of forming in the next 48 hours, but that number rises to 40% over 7 days, a sign that the longer-range setup is becoming more favorable even as the short-range outlook stays quiet.
Michelle McCormick said the key question is whether the low stays over the Gulf Stream later this week. If it does, conditions could become more conducive to subtropical development, and a subtropical cyclone could form over the second half of this week as the system starts moving generally northeastward offshore of the eastern United States.
Even if it never makes that transition, the system is expected to send high winds, coastal flooding and dangerous surf along portions of the U.S. East Coast. That risk does not depend on whether the low gets a tropical label; it depends on how close the system stays to shore and how long it lingers over warm water.
The open question is where the worst impacts will land. The forecast points to portions of the East Coast rather than one fixed target, which means the most hazardous stretch could shift as the low inches along and then bends northeast. For now, the storm is being watched less as a finished system than as a developing one, with the next few days likely to decide whether it remains only a rough coastal low or gains subtropical characteristics by the end of the week.
WJCL will keep following whether the low holds together over the Gulf Stream and whether the broad threat to the coast sharpens into a more defined center of impact.
