Wall Street is valuing SpaceX far more for what it can become than for the rockets it already flies. Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley put a $300 price target on the company and broke that value into $8 a share for external launches, $118 for Starlink-powered connectivity and $165 for enterprise AI.
That split is why investors are looking at SpaceX differently now. The company has 35 analysts tracked by TipRanks, and their 12-month targets range from $75 to $450, with an average of $217, nearly 50% above the stock's price at publication. The numbers show a market trying to price a company that is still private, still capital-hungry and still defined less by its visible hardware than by the businesses its network may support.
The launch business is the clearest example of that disconnect. SpaceX generated $7.81 billion in revenue in the second quarter, but the Space segment contributed only $962 million, and external launch services brought in $648 million, or roughly 8% of total revenue. Morgan Stanley's $8 per share valuation on launches reflects that scale. SpaceX completed 38 launches in the quarter, yet 28 were internal missions, including Starlink deployments and development tests, and the company does not recognize launch revenue when it is sending up its own satellites. Those costs are instead folded into the value of its satellite assets.
That accounting helps explain why the rockets that made SpaceX famous do not drive most of its reported value. The Space segment also posted a $542 million operating loss in the quarter, after about $1.08 billion in research and development spending that was largely tied to Starship. By contrast, the Connectivity segment generated $4.29 billion in revenue and $1.66 billion in operating income, with a margin of nearly 39%. Starlink's subscribers doubled year over year to 12 million, even as average monthly revenue per subscriber fell from $85 to $66.
Enterprise and government revenues more than doubled, giving analysts another reason to push value into the connectivity and AI side of the story. Morgan Stanley's framework treats SpaceX less as a launch company than as a platform whose launch system enables the rest of the business. That is also why the recently agreed $8 billion acquisition of Grain Management's 800-megahertz spectrum portfolio matters: it could help Starlink Mobile deliver connectivity through both satellite and ground-based networks, widening the business that sits behind the largest part of the valuation.
The unanswered question is how quickly those ambitions can turn into durable cash flow at the scale implied by the share targets. For now, Wall Street appears willing to pay for the network, the spectrum and the AI option, while giving the rocket business only a small slice of the total.
