Roy Cooper opened a 14-point lead over Michael Whatley in a new WRAL/WSOC Poll of likely North Carolina voters, a striking number in a race for the open U.S. Senate seat that both parties expected to tighten much sooner.
The poll showed Cooper at 54% and Whatley at 40%, with about 5% undecided and 1% backing another candidate. Released Tuesday, the survey landed just as early voting begins this week and with Nov. 3 Election Day still ahead, giving both campaigns fresh evidence to use in a contest that could shape the 2026 midterm race across North Carolina.
The poll was conducted by SurveyUSA for WRAL and WSOC-TV in Charlotte from Oct. 7-11, sampling 900 North Carolinians and including 643 respondents who had already voted by mail or said they were likely to vote. The credibility interval was 5 percentage points, which means the race is still competitive in the statistical sense, but the size of Cooper’s advantage is large enough to matter even with that cushion.
Whatley has the backing of Donald Trump, and his campaign has been trying to cast the race as one that will close quickly once more voters tune in. DJ Griffin said Whatley has been meeting with communities across the state and holding nearly 400 campaign events, and he said the campaign expects the contest to tighten and Whatley to win in November. That message has not yet matched the public polling, which has consistently shown Cooper ahead this year.
The latest numbers also fit a broader pattern in North Carolina, where federal races for the U.S. Senate seat and president are almost always close. Michael Bitzer said his own Sept. 30 poll showed Cooper ahead by 12 points, and he said the usual assumption was that the gap would narrow into the kind of race where the margin falls within a poll’s error. He said he is not sure that is happening.
Whatley’s side still has arguments to make. Jeff Allen said North Carolina is a 50-50 state and noted that a Democrat has not won statewide federal office in nearly two decades. But the race has also been shaped by a tougher backdrop for Republicans: Thom Tillis is not seeking reelection after falling out of favor with Donald Trump for voting against the 2025 spending bill that Trump and his supporters called the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Whatley has been running on delivering for Trump’s agenda if elected, yet he is now trying to make up ground without the kind of momentum his campaign says is coming.
That is the part that matters now. The undecided share is small, and even if every one of those voters broke against Cooper, Whatley would still need a substantial shift from voters who already have an opinion. With early voting starting this week and Election Day on Nov. 3, the next test is whether Whatley can finally turn his argument into votes before the window closes.
