Malta Draw No Bet at 2/9 looks a strong option for Sunday’s Malta vs Andorra fixture after Malta beat Andorra 2-1 in Andorra last month and again showed the stronger edge in the same meeting. The scoreline was close, but Malta created the clearer chances and had the better control throughout.
That is why the market has settled on Malta rather than a wider angle on the game. In the win in Andorra, Malta produced 3.48 xG to Andorra’s 0.76, landed eight shots on target and carved out seven big chances, numbers that fit the view that their head-to-head edge was not a narrow accident.
The wider form only strengthens that reading. After losing to Malta, Andorra drew 0-0 away to Gibraltar with just 0.76 xG, then went down 3-0 away to Lithuania in their latest result. Across their opening two Nations League matches, they averaged 0.76 xG and 1.88 xGA, a return that leaves little room for comfort when they travel.
There is also the longer away record. Andorra have won only four of their last 60 away internationals, drawing 11 and losing 45, while scoring 17 goals in that stretch. That is an average of 0.28 goals per match, and all four of those wins came against San Marino or Liechtenstein, which means they have not beaten anyone else away across that sample.
The scoreline in last month’s match could tempt a casual read that this is a tighter contest than the data shows. It was only 2-1, but Malta kept pushing the action in the right areas and the underlying figures were far more one-sided than the final result suggested. That matters because it leaves Malta’s superiority looking repeatable, not fragile.
Malta are unbeaten in the last five meetings with Andorra, winning three and drawing two, so Draw No Bet would have returned three winners and two refunds across that span. With Andorra entering Sunday’s fixture without an away victory in their last 21 matches, the case for Malta Draw No Bet is straightforward: Malta have already beaten them, the numbers back it up, and Andorra keep failing to turn away trips into anything better than damage limitation.
