The Senior Citizens League said on September 11 that Social Security’s 2027 Cost of Living Adjustment is now projected at 3.5 percent, a forecast that would lift the average monthly check by $67.90 if it holds. Shannon Benton, speaking for TSCL, said the group expects the 2027 COLA to land at that level.
The timing matters because the Social Security Administration will not announce the official 2027 COLA until October 14, and people who follow the program are searching for clues now. TSCL’s estimate gives recipients a first look at where monthly benefits could be headed, one month before the government makes it official.
If the projection stands, the average Social Security check would rise from $1,940.08 to $2,007.98. That math reflects a 3.5 percent increase on the current average benefit, and it is enough to show how even a few tenths of a percentage point can move the monthly payment by real dollars. TSCL also said the new forecast is 0.1 percentage points lower than last month’s prediction, even though it remains above the 2.8 percent COLA for 2026 and the 2.5 percent COLA for 2025.
The estimate rests on the same measure the government uses for the official adjustment: the average yearly change in CPI-W for July, August and September. TSCL said the August CPI-W came in at 3.5 percent, after July was measured at 3.4 percent. The missing piece is September, which will determine whether the final calculation edges closer to TSCL’s forecast or moves away from it.
TSCL says it issues a new prediction each month using a statistical model that incorporates the Consumer Price Index, the Federal Reserve interest rate and the national unemployment rate. The group released version v1.2 of that model in January 2025, updating how it handles data and cutting back on reliance on earlier predictions from the same federal fiscal year.
That leaves the forecast in a useful but unfinished place. TSCL has put a 3.5 percent figure on the table, and the official answer is still weeks away. The September CPI-W reading will decide whether that estimate becomes a close preview or just another number in a year of shifting projections.
