The Dallas Cowboys are set to open the season against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium, and one early prediction has Dallas leaving with a 27-19 win even after Tyler Smith’s thumb surgery keeps him out. That absence matters because T.J. Bass is the one stepping into his place on a line that has to hold up in Week 1.
That is why Cowboys vs Giants is drawing attention now: it is not just a season opener, but a first look at how a road favorite handles a changed offensive front against a team trying to reset. The Cowboys are favored, and Dallas enters with Javonte Williams coming off a 1,201-yard, 11-touchdown season, which gives the game a clear pressure point even before the first snap.
The matchup also carries the kind of numbers that make a prediction feel less like a guess and more like a test of matchups. Dallas gave up 4,735 passing yards and 31 passing touchdowns last season, while New York surrendered 2,470 rushing yards and 3,908 passing yards. One BTB writer called Week 1 predictions “a shot in the dark,” then still settled on 27-19 for the Cowboys, a score that reflects the belief that Dallas can do enough on both sides to control the night.
The Giants, though, are not approaching this like a team waiting to be pushed around. They won only four games last season, but they are entering with a new coaching staff and an offense expected to start with the run. John Harbaugh brought in coaches tied to physical rushing attacks, Patrick Ricard and first-round offensive lineman Francis Mauigoa were added to support that plan, and Cam Skattebo is described as a powerful runner. Jaxson Dart is the harder piece for Dallas to sort out: he rushed for 487 yards and nine touchdowns as a rookie, then finished the year by completing 22 of 32 passes for 230 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions in a 34-17 win over Dallas.
That is where the game gets messy for the Cowboys. Brian Burns had 16.5 sacks last season, the Giants finished with 48 sacks as a team, and Abdul Carter gives them another edge threat, but New York also has to answer its own uncertainty around Malik Nabers, whose Week 1 availability remains unclear after ACL recovery. If Nabers is not ready, the Giants lose another layer in a game that already asks Dart to carry a lot while Dallas tries to protect a line without Smith. The clean read is that the Cowboys have the better start on paper. The real question is whether Bass, Williams and a defense led by Christian Parker can make that paper edge hold up in a humid Week 1 game that will show whether the favorite can impose its shape from the first drive.
