James Talarico opened a new lead over Ken Paxton in a Sept. 9 poll, putting the Texas Senate race at 48% to 43% with 7% undecided. The N+ Univision survey is the latest sign that a contest long described as close has tilted, at least for now, toward the Democrat.
The poll was conducted among 1,000 registered voters in Texas from Aug. 27 to Sept. 4 and used a matched, propensity-score design with an equivalent margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points. That means the race is still within the kind of range where a lead can shrink or widen in later polling, but Talarico’s edge is larger than the spread between the two candidates in some earlier August surveys and comes as the campaign enters its final stretch before Election Day on Nov. 3.
That shift matters because it is not just about one ballot test. The poll found 25% of voters said they had become more supportive of Democrats since the 2024 election, compared with 17% who said they had become more supportive of Republicans, an 8-point move toward Democrats overall. Among Hispanic voters, the shift was 11 points. When voters were asked why their views had changed, 25% cited Donald Trump’s actions as president, the most common response; among Hispanic voters, that figure was 24%.
Talarico also held a clear advantage on personal favorability. He was viewed favorably by 44% of voters and unfavorably by 35%, while Paxton was viewed favorably by 36% and unfavorably by 49%. Among Hispanic voters, Talarico’s favorability rose from 26% to 53%, a surge that helps explain why the Democrat’s numbers look stronger in this survey than they did in some earlier polls.
The new result lands after a string of public surveys that pointed in different directions. A Texas Public Opinion Research poll released Aug. 27 showed Talarico ahead 48% to 42%. A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll published Aug. 25 found 42% of Texas voters preferred Talarico and 39% planned to vote for Paxton. But an Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media poll released Aug. 13 had Paxton at 47% and Talarico at 46%, while a Texas Pulse/Texas A&M Bush School poll on Aug. 7 showed Talarico leading 47% to 43%. A Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center poll on Aug. 4 had Talarico ahead 47% to 45%.
So the question is not whether the race is settled. It is whether the latest Democratic edge is the start of a durable lead or just the newest snapshot in a contest that has bounced around within the margin of error for weeks. With Nov. 3 still ahead, the next round of polling will show whether Paxton can close the gap or whether Talarico’s advantage has begun to stick.
Mateo Rosiles wrote this report. Got a news tip for him? Email him at mros.
