Major Hurricane Lowell was turning north on Sunday night and edging closer to Hawaii, with Kauai County under a hurricane warning as the storm was forecast to pass just west of Kauai and Niihau. Lowell was still a category 3 hurricane at 11 p.m. Sunday, packing maximum sustained winds of 115 miles per hour while moving north-northeast at 10 miles per hour.
The warning setup matters now because the storm’s track has shifted a little farther east, raising the chance that Niihau and Kauai could see hurricane conditions instead of just rough fringe weather. At 11 p.m. Sunday, Lowell was about 445 miles southwest of Lihue and 480 miles southwest of Honolulu, with hurricane-force winds stretching 60 miles from its center and tropical storm-force winds reaching 175 miles out.
Kauai and Niihau were under both a Hurricane Warning and a Tropical Storm Warning, while a Hurricane Watch also covered Kauai County. A Hurricane Warning had also been issued for parts of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument and for Hawaiian offshore waters 40 to 250 nautical miles from coastlines. A Flood Watch was in effect for all Hawaiian Islands through Tuesday afternoon, and high surf warnings were already posted for the south-facing shores of all islands through 6 a.m. Tuesday.
The forecast still calls for Lowell to weaken gradually as strong south-southwesterly shear develops, but not quickly enough to remove the threat before the storm reaches its closest point Monday night. Lowell was still expected to be a hurricane at that point, then turn toward the north-northwest and slow down by Tuesday night. That leaves Kauai County in the narrow window where the track could keep the islands just outside the center of the storm, or push them close enough to feel the worst of it.
Heavy rain is possible along Lowell’s eastern flank, and the surf forecast is also worsening. On the west shores of Hawaii Island, surf of 6 to 8 feet was expected through Monday morning before rapidly building Monday afternoon and evening to 12 to 16 feet. A high surf advisory was also posted for the east-facing shores of Oahu, Molokai, Maui and Hawaii Island, where waves of 7 to 10 feet were expected through Monday. Lowell’s path will decide whether Kauai and Niihau get a glancing blow or something stronger, but the islands are already inside the warning zone as the storm moves in late Monday into early Tuesday.
