Frances Tiafoe will open the 2026 U.S. Open on Monday night against Martin Damm Jr., setting up a second straight meeting between the two Americans at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. Tiafoe, the No. 11-ranked player in the draw, is trying to put himself back on a deeper run after a 2025 U.S. Open that ended in the third round.
That makes the matchup a familiar one for anyone who followed last year’s tournament. Tiafoe beat Damm in the Round of 64 in four sets, 6-4, 7-5, 6-7, 7-5, and the result carried extra weight because it came after Tiafoe had reached at least the quarterfinals of the U.S. Open in three straight years before that 2025 exit. Damm took a set in that match, which is part of why the rematch has some real intrigue even with Tiafoe favored.
The number attached to the match tells the rest of the story. Oddsmakers have Tiafoe at -382 to advance, a line that implies about a 79 percent chance of winning before the match starts. That is still a heavy lean toward the higher-ranked player, but it leaves room for the kind of resistance Damm showed a year ago, when the scoreline stayed tight into the fourth set.
Damm is not arriving as a finished product, either. He is making just the fourth Grand Slam appearance of his career, and the 2025 U.S. Open was already a step forward when he reached the second round in his debut at the event. Earlier in 2026, he reached the Round of 16 at the Winston-Salem Open, then was bounced in qualifiers at the Cincinnati Masters, a mixed run that leaves him searching for a more stable result on the biggest stage.
That is the friction inside this first-round match. Tiafoe has the better record, the better ranking and the stronger U.S. Open history, but Damm has already shown he can stretch him over a long match and steal a set. Monday night does not settle the larger questions about either player’s season, but it will show whether the rematch follows last year’s script or gives Damm the kind of breakthrough that changes the shape of his Grand Slam résumé.
