Iran’s ability to ship fresh crude has fallen close to zero under the US maritime blockade, even as oil flows through the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to around two-thirds of pre-war levels. The split is stark: the region’s main oil lane is moving again for most producers, but not for Tehran.
Homayoun Falakshahi said the shift is the reverse of the opening phase of the war, when Iran could still move oil while its neighbors struggled. “It’s exactly the opposite scenario compared to the beginning of the war where Iran could export its oil but the neighbors couldn’t,” he said. “And now it’s actually the contrary. Iran cannot export new oil.”
Friday’s readings help explain why the search for Persian Gulf Oil Flows Recovery is drawing attention now. Goldman Sachs said crude and condensate flows through the Strait of Hormuz had recovered to around two-thirds of pre-war volumes, while Kpler put the broader recovery at roughly 70%. That rebound is important because it shows the maritime chokepoint is no longer the main bottleneck for the Gulf as a whole, even though it remains a critical pressure point for Iran.
Kpler estimates that roughly 40 million to 50 million barrels of Iranian oil are still on the water in Asia. That is down from about 80 million barrels previously, but it still means the blockade has not cut off every last dollar at once. Chinese discharges are running at close to one million barrels per day, and at that pace the remaining oil could take roughly 50 days to unload. Chinese buyers also generally have another one to two months to pay Iranian sellers, which pushes the revenue hit further down the road.
That delay is the friction in the story. Fresh exports are near zero, but the oil already loaded before restrictions tightened is still outside the blockade zone and can keep cash moving for a while longer. China buys effectively all of Iran’s crude and condensate exports, and when petroleum products and petrochemicals are included, its share of Iranian petroleum exports rises to roughly 90% to 95%. In other words, the blockade has shut the front door, but a backlog of cargoes is still working its way through the side exit.
What comes next is a matter of timing, not direction. Kpler said that if the blockade remains in place, Iran’s oil export revenues could effectively fall to zero within roughly three to four months. That is the point where the remaining cargoes, the payment window and the pressure on the shipping route would all have been worked through together, leaving Tehran with little left to sell and less time to delay the cost.
