Lewis Jones has backed Brentford to give Tottenham Hotspur a reality check this weekend, making the Premier League meeting one of the sharpest betting calls in Sky Sports' opening-round coverage. Jones, who correctly called Arsenal to win 3-0 on FNF and landed his best bet there too, has put his name behind a Brentford upset rather than treating the game as a routine home favourite.
The prediction matters now because Sky Sports said five more matches would be live from the opening round this weekend, and Jones’ view is already shaping how bettors read the markets. Tottenham Hotspur are not the only side in focus, but they are the one drawing the biggest response because Brentford are being framed as capable of exposing a team still trying to prove its defensive rebuild is real.
Jones’ wider reasoning has leaned on form lines that reach beyond one fixture. He has questioned Michael Carrick's squad depth and the sustainability of last season's third-place finish, pointing to a side that averaged 1.5 expected goals against per 90 and conceded 1.05 goals per game last season. The collapse against AC Milan in pre-season was treated as a warning that the defensive issues have not vanished, even if the numbers over a full season were respectable enough on paper.
That is where the friction sits. Jones is willing to trust Brentford against Tottenham Hotspur without any match-specific evidence in the preview to make the case feel airtight, which leaves the pick hanging on interpretation rather than fresh proof. It is the kind of wager that can look brave or thin depending on whether Tottenham Hotspur start the weekend as the same side that has been trying to stabilise its back line, a theme that runs through the club’s wider rebuild and recent transfer chatter.
Jones’ other selections show the same blend of data and instinct. Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall was named man of the match in a 1-1 draw with Lille after Iliman Ndiaye scored from the penalty he won, and the midfielder was backed at 11/8 with Sky Bet to score or assist after ranking 11th among Premier League midfielders for goals and assists per 90 at 0.41 last season for Everton. Morgan Gibbs-White, meanwhile, was priced at 9/4 in the anytime goalscorer market after finishing with 15 Premier League goals and scoring seven times in his last six games last season.
There was also a cautionary note on teams carrying European baggage. Since Leicester won the Premier League title in 2016, non big six sides that go into Europe after a season without continental football have averaged 12.5 fewer points the next season, with Newcastle down 17 points, Nottingham Forest down 21 and Crystal Palace down 8 in that kind of regression. Sunderland were described as overachieving by 13 points by Opta's expected goals model and were priced at 3/1 with Sky Bet to be relegated, a reminder that the market is often built as much on what teams have not shown as on what they have.
For Tottenham Hotspur, the next test is simple enough: beat the doubt, or let Jones’ call stand as the first public sign that Brentford can still make them look vulnerable. If the betting expert is right, the weekend will start with a result that fits the warning rather than the reputation.
