Hallie Shoffner has moved into a narrow lead over Tom Cotton in a new Arkansas U.S. Senate poll, a snapshot that puts the race back in play as the fall campaign heads toward higher spending and more advertising. The Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College Poll, conducted Aug. 11-12, found Shoffner ahead 47.4% to 44% among 1,217 likely voters.
That margin matters because it comes before the race hardens. The survey was published Aug. 19, and with 5.65% still undecided, the numbers show a contest that is settled nowhere. Hallie Shoffner, who has been new to the political scene in the state and has run an active campaign online, now has a polling lead that gives her a fresh line of attack against an incumbent who still has deep reserves of support.
The lead is small enough to sit inside the poll’s 4.7% margin of error, which means neither side can treat it as a final reading. Cotton still held 82% of Republicans in the survey, and he was ahead with men, older voters and non-college degree holders. Shoffner, meanwhile, ran up large margins with women, Democrats and Independents, a split that explains how the race can look close even when one candidate is ahead.
Robert Coon said Donald Trump’s record low approval ratings are weighing on Republican candidates around the country, including Senator Tom Cotton. He said 48% of respondents strongly disapproved of Trump, and Shoffner got 94% of that group. Jay Barth said the U.S. Senate race is where Trump’s problems with Arkansas voters show up most clearly, especially among independents, and that the patterns for Trump are the patterns for Cotton.
Roby Brock said the race remains competitive and that the amount of money likely to be poured into Arkansas to shape the outcome will be substantial. He also said the poll will keep running until early voting begins. For Cotton, that means the next stretch is not about preserving a comfortable lead but about stopping the erosion before voters lock in, while Shoffner has already shown she can turn national headwinds into a state-level opening.
