OpenSnow has released a long-range winter forecast that points to a warmer season and less snowfall than usual for Ohio and much of the northern United States. The outlook leans on an expected super El Niño, a setup tied to unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
That is why the Farmers' Almanac Winter Forecast search is landing now for readers in Ohio and the Great Lakes region. The forecast is not a storm-by-storm call. It is seasonal guidance, and it suggests above-average temperatures across the Buckeye State with below-normal snowfall across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.
Amani Bayo, who can be reached at [email protected], is watching the kind of winter pattern that can change quickly once the season starts. Forecasters compared the developing conditions with previous strong El Niño winters and used seasonal weather models and other atmospheric signals to shape the outlook. NOAA forecasts indicate that El Niño will likely persist through the winter, and NOAA has increased confidence that it could become a very strong event.
The main reason snow could come in below average is not simply a lack of moisture. Warm temperatures are expected to be the bigger factor, because strong El Niño winters often keep Arctic air farther north and shorten the cold stretches that usually help frequent snow events build. In other words, the season can still look mild overall without being uniformly dry.
That is the part of the forecast that matters most. A winter can still produce significant snowstorms and finish with above-average snowfall totals if one or two major systems cut through at the right time. How much snow Ohio ultimately sees will depend on the track and timing of those storms, not just the broad signal for warmth.
NOAA has not yet released its official outlook for the 2026-27 winter season, so this remains the first broad read on what the months ahead may bring. The Climate Prediction Center says El Niño is expected to continue strengthening through the end of the year, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026-27 and a 69% chance it could become historic, exceeding every El Niño observed since recordkeeping began in 1950.
For now, the signal is clear enough for planning and hazy enough to avoid false certainty: Ohio is more likely to face a warmer winter with less snow than usual, but the season can still turn on a single hard-hitting storm.
