Zebby Matthews goes into the matchup with the Atlanta Braves carrying the kind of recent line that makes a clean start hard to trust. He has allowed at least three earned runs in six of his last seven starts, and his inability to limit barrels has left him with a 6.90 ERA in six starts against top-10 lineups in xwOBA versus righties.
That matters today because the Braves were listed as -130 favorites to even the series in Minnesota, and their lineup sits eighth in xwOBA versus righties. Matthews has also given up 2.70 home runs per nine innings, which is a bad fit against a group that can turn mistakes into damage quickly.
The numbers around him only sharpen the concern. He has allowed a.202 ISO and 1.71 HR/9 to lefties, a profile that leaves little room for error when a lineup is built to lift the ball. Drake Baldwin has added another layer of threat over the past 20 games, leading the team in average exit velocity at 95.8 mph, ranking second in hard-hit rate and getting the ball at least 300 feet 16 times.
There is some counterweight on the other side, but it does not erase the matchup edge. Tyler Mahle has posted a 2.83 ERA and 3.18 SIERA over the last month, yet his ERA sits at 7.07 away from Oracle Park. The Minnesota Twins have also hit.228 off righties in August with a.140 ISO, and they have won five of their last 15 games, so the recent form around the game is hardly spotless.
That is why the Over has drawn attention up to -130. If Matthews keeps allowing barrels, the Braves are in position to press that edge early, and Minnesota may need more than Mahle’s recent run to keep the game in reach.
