Figma’s stock climbed into earnings week as a planned lock-up expiry could free about 77.7 million shares to trade at Friday’s open. The possible supply hit comes after the shares already rose 14.2% from July 31.
The unlock would amount to 14.8% of Figma’s shares outstanding as of the March quarter, or 3.6 times the stock’s average trading volume over the last 65 days. Shareholders are under no obligation to sell, but the filing warned that expected or actual sales might weigh on the share price.
That is why traders are focused on Wednesday’s report after the close. Figma is expected to update investors on second-quarter revenue and adjusted earnings, and the stock still has 9.6% to go before it reaches the average analyst price target. Nine analysts rate it a hold and six call it a buy, leaving the shares expensive by software standards even before the unlock arrives.
Figma’s guidance from May 14 calls for second-quarter revenue of $348 million to $350 million, below the $351.5 million consensus estimate, with adjusted earnings seen at four cents a share. The company’s first quarter gave bulls reasons to stay interested: revenue rose 46% to $333.4 million, net dollar retention hit 139%, and free-cash-flow margin was 27%.
Customer growth has also stayed strong. Paid customers increased 54% to nearly 690,000, while clients generating at least $100,000 in annual recurring revenue climbed 48% to 1,525. More than 75% of organisational and enterprise users who ran through their credit limits in April kept using credits, and more than 95% stayed active.
That retention helps explain why AI keeps showing up in the investment case. Dylan Field has said, “When code is a commodity, design is the competitive edge.” BofA Securities analyst Tal Liani argued AI is “more likely a tailwind, not a headwind,” and BofA Securities kept a Buy rating with a $30 target, which implies about 8% upside. Even so, the stock’s valuation remains elevated at about 10.9 times market cap to annualised sales, versus 3.9 for Adobe Inc. and 3.2 for monday.com Ltd.
The friction is simple. Figma’s business momentum and AI narrative have lifted the shares, but a very large block of stock can become tradable just as the company is due to report and as Friday, August 7, approaches. Whether that supply turns into selling will matter as much as the earnings print itself.
