SpaceX will report second-quarter results on Tuesday after the bell, giving investors their first look at the company as a public company just as the stock heads into a major supply event. The shares have already shed nearly 30% from their $150 market debut last month and remain down roughly 50% from their all-time high of $225.64.
The timing is why the report is drawing so much attention. SpaceX closed higher on Monday and added more ground in the pre-market before earnings, but the backdrop is still fragile: two days after Tuesday, on Aug. 6, the lockup frees hundreds of millions of insider shares, opening up as much as 20% of the stock for sale. For a name that is still trying to establish a public valuation, that is a lot of stock waiting on the sidelines to come loose at once.
Wall Street is looking for revenue of $6.81 billion, with adjusted earnings of $0.24 a share and adjusted EBITDA of $2.0 billion, according to consensus. Those numbers matter because they will be read against the one question hanging over the stock: whether growth in Starlink and the rest of the business is strong enough to absorb the spending needed to keep Starship moving forward.
That spending picture is already big enough to spook investors. Melissa Otto said SpaceX's capex numbers are expected to rise from $48.7 billion this year to $118.4 billion in FY 2028, while overall debt is projected to climb from $41.7 billion this year to over $218.0 billion in FY 2028. That kind of forecast does not sit quietly beside a stock that has barely had time to find its footing in public markets.
The pressure is not only financial. Elon Musk said SpaceX will try to catch the ship with the tower on the next flight unless mission data review turns up problems, and Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu said the target window for Flight 14 is late August or September. Yu also said Starlink V3 satellites can be deployed on Starship even with partial reusability of the spacecraft, which is the kind of operational promise that can support the story if the hardware cooperates.
But the market is not being asked to wait for a cleaner moment. SpaceX is stepping into its first earnings report as a public company while hundreds of millions of insider shares are about to become eligible for sale. If the quarter shows strong growth without calming the spending outlook, the stock may still have to trade through the lockup instead of around it.
