The Old Farmer’s Almanac has issued a fall 2026 outlook calling for a warm interior, cooler coastal weather and drier-than-average conditions across most of the United States. Most of the country is expected to run warmer than usual, with summerlike warmth lingering well into October in the Heartland, High Plains, Deep South and Texas.
That makes the forecast a quick search for homeowners trying to read the season ahead. The breakdown is regional, not uniform: the High Plains are expected to stay dry, Texas and Oklahoma could see up to 4 inches of above-average rainfall, and the Northeast and Pacific Northwest are the main wetter-than-normal zones. Cooler-than-average temperatures are forecast over the Northeast, Atlantic Corridor, Appalachians, Southeast and Pacific Coast, while the Upper Midwest, Lower Lakes and Desert Southwest are expected to start with a cooler September before October warms up or shifts.
The sharpest takeaway is that the broad warmth does not erase local differences. For people in the interior, the fall may feel pleasant and extended. For those along the coasts, the pattern tilts cooler, and in the Northeast and Pacific Northwest it also turns wetter. That mix is why the forecast reads less like one national season than a patchwork of regional conditions, with the most noticeable dry warmth landing inland and the most active rain pockets tucked toward the edge of the map.
The timing matters because the fall setup sits right next to a much bigger winter question. The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center says El Niño has a 97% chance of lasting into early spring 2027 and an 81% chance of becoming very strong from October to December. Daniel Swain has noted that some of California’s wettest winters came during some of the strongest El Niños, and he has also warned that more intense and more frequent winter storms could be headed to the interior southwest and the southern tier of states.
That is where the promise of a mild fall starts to fray. NOAA has cautioned that stronger events can more significantly tilt the odds toward expected seasonal outcomes, which is why a forecast that looks comfortable now can still point toward a rougher winter later. The next key window is October to December, when forecasters see the strongest chance of a very strong El Niño, and that will help determine whether the warm fall gives way to a more severe end to the year.
