The Climate Prediction Center issued its fall 2026 outlook on June 18, and North Carolina did not come away with a single clean signal. The forecast gives much of the state equal chances for above, near and below normal precipitation, while Western N.C. gets a tilt toward warmer-than-average temperatures.
That makes the new map the one people are checking now, because it covers September-November 2026 and lands months before fall begins on Tuesday, Sept. 22, when the autumnal equinox marks the start of the season in the Northern Hemisphere. For readers comparing the NOAA outlook with the Old Farmer's Almanac Fall Weather forecast, the difference starts with how the two forecasts are built and how much they try to say about a three-month stretch.
The numbers behind NOAA’s map are specific. In much of the South and Southeast, temperatures are 40-50% likely to be above average, and in Western N.C. the probability of above-average temperatures is 33-40%. Across the country, NOAA’s fall outlook shows much of the nation leaning warmer than average, with probabilities ranging from 33% to 60%, while parts of the central and northern U.S. are left with equal chances for above, near and below normal temperatures.
Rain is where North Carolina gets the most uneven treatment. Most of North Carolina is in the neutral zone for precipitation, meaning no one outcome is favored, but a small portion of Western N.C. is nudged toward above-average rainfall at 33-40%. That is a narrower wet signal than the one shown in parts of the southeast and southwest, where above-average precipitation is forecast at 33-50%, and it is far different from the broad equal-chances setup that covers the rest of the nation.
The contrast matters because NOAA’s meteorologists use contoured maps to turn a three-month outlook into probabilities, not promises. Blue, green and other color bands do not mean certainty; they show where the odds lean, where they do not, and where the forecast is too balanced to favor any one outcome. For North Carolina, that leaves a state split between warmer odds in the west and rainfall that, for most of the state, is still anyone’s game.
Old Farmer's Almanac Fall Weather drew attention earlier, but NOAA’s June 18 release gives the season a fresh benchmark before the calendar turns. For now, the clearest takeaway is that the state’s fall is expected to be warmer than average in the west and largely undecided on rain, with only a small western slice carrying a meaningful wet bias as September-November 2026 approaches.
