The Old Farmer's Almanac has released its annual fall forecast, and the new Northeast Fall Weather Almanac points to a season of contrasts for September and October. For people in the Northeast, the headline is simple: below-normal temperatures and increased rainfall are expected during the two-month period.
The forecast lands now because it is the first broad seasonal look at fall 2026, giving readers an early guide to what the Almanac sees ahead. It says much of the country will be drier than normal, while several regions are headed for cooler conditions, making the Northeast stand out as one of the places expected to be wetter than average.
That split runs through the rest of the map. The Almanac says warmer-than-average temperatures are expected across much of the nation's interior, including much of the Northern Plains, Heartland and Deep South. It also says much of the eastern U.S. and the Pacific Coast are forecast to be cooler than average, with the Atlantic Corridor expected to be cooler and drier and temperatures about 1 degree below average.
The Northeast is where the forecast breaks from the wider dry trend. While rainfall is expected to come in below average across much of the country, the Northeast is forecast to be cooler and wetter than average. The Southeast is also set up for cooler-than-average temperatures, but with below-average rainfall, while Florida is forecast to be cooler and drier statewide, though southern Florida is expected to receive slightly above-average rainfall.
Other regions show a mix of weather shifts. The Upper Midwest is expected to start with a cool September before warming slightly in October. The Heartland is forecast to have a drier September followed by a wetter October. Northern Texas and Oklahoma are expected to be slightly cooler and significantly wetter than average, while Southern Texas is expected to stay warm with slightly above-average rainfall.
The West is uneven as well. The High Plains are forecast to be warmer and drier throughout fall. Northern areas of the Intermountain West are expected to trend cooler while southern areas are warmer, with slightly above-average precipitation overall. The Desert Southwest is set for a warm September followed by a slightly cooler October, but below-average rainfall is expected to continue through fall. The Pacific Northwest is projected to be one of the wettest regions in the country, with cooler temperatures and the potential for several inches of extra rainfall in September.
The Old Farmer's Almanac says it has an 80% accuracy rating, though that figure measures the share of its seasonal forecasts that it says have lined up with observed conditions. That claim is part of why the publication's long-range outlook draws attention each fall, even though the forecast itself covers only September and October and leaves the exact track of day-to-day weather to come.
For readers in the Northeast, the practical takeaway is clear: the season ahead is shaping up to be cooler and wetter than average. If the Almanac is right, fall plans in September and October will need to account for more rain and less warmth than much of the country will see.
