The Senior Citizens League said Tuesday it still expects the 2027 Social Security COLA to come in at 3.8%, a forecast that would lift the average monthly check by about $74. The estimate comes after the Consumer Price Index showed inflation easing to 3.5% for the 12 months ending in June.
That projection is the number many Social Security recipients are looking for now because it gives the first clear read on next year’s benefit increase before the official announcement in October. Under the 3.8% estimate, the average check would rise from $1,938 to $2,011, a jump that matters to millions of people who depend on those payments to cover rent, food and medicine.
The group said its 3.8% estimate matches its May forecast and is down slightly from a 3.9% projection in April. It is also a full percentage point higher than the 2.8% increase seniors received for 2026, showing how quickly the outlook can shift as inflation data changes.
The math behind the estimate is straightforward. A 3.8% increase on an average check of $1,938 works out to roughly $73.64, which rounds to about $74. That is why the projected monthly benefit climbs to $2,011, though the final figure can still move if inflation readings change before the official calculation.
That gap matters because Social Security COLAs are supposed to track rising costs, yet benefit increases often lag the inflation seniors say they feel in daily life. The Senior Citizens League has said only 10% of seniors are happy with the amount they receive from monthly Social Security checks, with many pointing to COLAs that do not keep pace with prices. The average COLA increase over the past 10 years has been 3.1%, which puts the current 3.8% estimate above the recent norm but still leaves it vulnerable to the next round of price data.
Social Security payments are adjusted each January to reflect higher consumer costs, but the official 2027 COLA will not be locked in until October. That leaves room for the estimate to change if inflation surprises to the upside or eases further before the Social Security Administration makes its announcement.
There is also a larger backdrop to the benefit debate. Concerns continue about the financial viability of the Social Security Trust Fund, and a bipartisan group of senators introduced the Promise Act on Tuesday to address the looming shortfall. The measure would ask a seven-member board to draft a bill aimed at closing the gap, but the immediate issue for retirees remains the size of next year’s increase.
For now, the 3.8% projection is the number to watch, because it is close enough to feel real but still far enough from October to move either way.
