The FOX Forecast Center is tracking the eastern Gulf for a possible tropical system later this weekend, after multiple forecast models began signaling development over warm waters. If it forms, the window the center is watching is early next week.
That is why people in Florida and along the Gulf Coast are paying attention now. A weakening cold front moving over the warm Gulf waters this weekend could help spin up a broad area of low pressure and bring stormy weather near the coast, even though wind shear and dry air are expected to make it harder for anything to organize.
Britta Merwin said this kind of tropical development is very common for this time of year, and the timing fits the pattern. Water temperatures remain above average in the Gulf and off the Southeast coast, which gives any budding system more fuel than it would have over cooler water.
The catch is that the setup is still far from a done deal. The FOX Weather Tropical Threat still shows a low chance of development through next Wednesday, which is a reminder that model hints do not always become a named storm. The next name on the list would be Bertha.
The broader season has been quiet so far, with Tropical Storm Arthur still the year’s only named storm after forming along the Texas coast on June 17. Even now, the Atlantic remains mostly shut down by hostile winds and Saharan dust, while July systems that do develop often start close to the American coastline rather than out over open water.
For Florida, the question is not whether this will become a major storm; the present signals do not support that. The question is whether the eastern Gulf disturbance can organize at all, and if it does, which stretch of coast it reaches first. Outside of keeping an eye on forecast updates over the next few days, there is no immediate cause for concern.
