Canada’s economy grew 0.5 per cent in April from the month before, a stronger reading than economists had expected and one that pointed to Alberta as the likely engine behind the rebound. Charles St-Arnaud said the province was probably leading the way because its energy sector bounced back hard after March weakness.
St-Arnaud said the details available in the report suggest Alberta’s activity was stronger than in the rest of Canada in May, thanks to the rebound in oil and gas extraction. That sector rose 3.7 per cent, and almost all of that increase was in Alberta.
Statistics Canada does not publish monthly provincial GDP figures, so Alberta’s lead is an inference drawn from sector data rather than an official provincial GDP release. Even so, the scale of the bounce is hard to miss: St-Arnaud described it as a payback from the weakness seen in March, and said Alberta was “way better than the rest of the country” on the month.
That leaves the April number doing more than simply beating forecasts. It also softens the recent talk of recession and suggests the country’s monthly growth picture is being shaped, at least for now, by a province where energy output is doing most of the heavy lifting. What remains unanswered is how durable that support will be once the rebound from March fades from the numbers.
