Ken Paxton has opened a one-point edge over James Talarico in a new Texas Politics Project poll, a result that leaves the Texas U.S. Senate race effectively tied at 43% to 42%. The survey, released Tuesday, was taken after the Republican nominee was set and gives Paxton only a narrow lead inside the poll’s 3.5-point margin of error.
That shift is the reason Paxton is drawing fresh attention now. He moved from 34% in the pollster’s April survey to 43% in the new one, while Talarico stayed at 42% in both readings. The change came about three weeks after Paxton defeated John Cornyn in the Republican runoff election, a contest that settled the GOP field and turned the general election into a direct test of whether Republicans would rally behind him.
The numbers suggest they have, at least for now. Among Republican voters, 84% said they would support Paxton, while 5% said they would back Talarico. That kind of consolidation is the clearest reason Paxton leads overall, but it does not erase the race’s split personality. More than a third of independents said they had no opinion, and Talarico still held commanding advantages among those voters who were not already locked in on the Republican side.
He also performed better with the groups that often decide statewide races. Paxton led among male voters by 9 points, but Talarico led among female voters by 6 points. Talarico won voters under age 65 and those with a two-year college degree or more, carried Hispanic voters by 14 points, and drew support from around two-thirds of Black voters. The poll queried 1,200 self-reported registered voters from June 5 to 12, and it shows a race where Paxton’s party base is firm but the broader electorate is not yet settled.
The contrast with April is stark. The same pollster had Paxton trailing Talarico by 8 percentage points then, which means Paxton gained nine points while Talarico held steady. That math points to a campaign shape that is becoming clearer: Paxton can count on Republicans, but if he cannot cut into the independent and moderate advantage Talarico is keeping, the one-point lead could disappear as quickly as it arrived.
The next test is whether Paxton can do more than consolidate his own side. For now, the race is close because he has repaired his standing with Republicans, while Talarico remains the stronger choice among the voters most likely to decide it.
