Bitcoin could slip below $60,000 and fall to $55,000 before this downturn is over, according to Markus Thielen, who said the BTC price still has more room to weaken before a cycle low forms between late August and October. He said the implication is patience now, attention in late August.
The call matters because Bitcoin is already trading under pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar and a hawkish Federal Reserve backdrop, and Thielen says markets are now debating whether the Federal Reserve’s next move could be a rate hike rather than a cut. That shift keeps traders focused on whether this is just a pullback or the start of a deeper slide.
Thielen’s case rests on three signals pointing to a possible bottom later in the year. One model tracking the rate of change in global liquidity correctly identified a buying opportunity in March and an exit signal in April, which he takes as evidence that liquidity changes can still be read with some consistency. He also points to seasonal patterns that have made September a weak month for Bitcoin and October a stronger one, giving the forecast a window rather than a single date.
The timing lines up with a crowded stretch of macro events. Thielen said the window overlaps with two closely watched Federal Reserve meetings in September and October, the U.S. midterm elections, and the Treasury Department’s quarterly refinancing announcement in early November. In that framing, the market is not being asked to absorb one catalyst, but several, each capable of changing the tone for Bitcoin at short notice.
There is still a gap in the story: Thielen expects more downside in the near term, but he does not see the decline lasting indefinitely. His view leaves room for Bitcoin to wash out before turning, with the late-August-to-October band acting as the likely floor rather than a promise of immediate relief. That is why the next few weeks matter so much for anyone watching the BTC price — they may decide whether the market is still in the middle of its correction or already close to the end of it.
