Bitcoin price may have more room to fall before this bear-market leg ends, with Markus Thielen saying the token is likely to drop below $60,000 and test $55,000 before carving out a cycle low later this year. The 10x Research founder said patience now matters most, with late August emerging as the next moment traders should watch.
That call lands at a time when Bitcoin was trading at $59,670.29, leaving the market close to the level Thielen thinks will not hold. His forecast matters today because it gives traders a concrete downside target, not just a vague warning, and it ties that target to a specific window that runs from late August through October.
Thielen’s case rests on three signals, but he leans most heavily on liquidity. He said a model tracking the rate of change in global liquidity correctly flagged a buying opportunity in March and an exit signal in April, and that same model now points to late August as the next key inflection date. On his reading, that makes the liquidity gauge the leading indicator, while the other two act more like confirmation.
The second signal is seasonal. Thielen said September has historically been a weak month for Bitcoin, while October has often been stronger. The third is macro timing. He said the late-summer window lines up with Federal Reserve meetings in September and October, a period when markets are already debating whether the next move could be a rate hike rather than a cut, along with the Treasury Department's quarterly refinancing announcement in early November.
That backdrop helps explain why the forecast is broader than one number. Thielen said the recent strength of the U.S. dollar has historically weighed on Bitcoin, and he argued that a hawkish Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh has reinforced that pressure. In that setting, the break below $60,000 would not just be a round-number loss; it would fit a wider message that Bitcoin is still working through downside before the current bear market runs its course.
There is still a wrinkle. Thielen’s timeline suggests the market low may not arrive until late August or later, yet Bitcoin is already pressing near the threshold he sees as vulnerable. If the coin avoids a clean break and turns before then, the market would be testing his timing as much as his price target. If it slips through, his $55,000 call becomes the level traders will use to judge whether the next phase of weakness has already begun.
Recent trading data adds to the uneasy tone. In May, combined exchange volumes fell 3.45% to $4.41 trillion, the lowest since September 2024, even as RWA perpetual futures volumes rose 10.4% against the trend and hit a new all-time high. That split does not change Thielen’s bear-market view, but it does show where speculation is still flowing while broader activity cools. For now, the market’s next real test sits in late August, when the liquidity model says attention should turn and the seasonal and policy pressures begin to converge.
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