Andy Burnham's allies say the Labour leadership race has shifted sharply in his favour after his Makerfield byelection victory, with confidence rising that he could be pushed into Downing Street without a long contest. Burnham secured a majority of 9,000 on Thursday, and backers say the surge in support since then has changed the arithmetic around Keir Starmer's future.
That is why Burnham's name is being searched now. He and his team have spent the past few days seeking backing from Labour MPs and ministers as he prepares to challenge Starmer in the coming weeks, while allies say the old idea that he would need 200 nominations is now “in the dust”. One minister put the number closer to 300, calling that estimate “logical”.
The rules explain the pressure point. Labour party rules require a challenger to secure nominations from at least 20% of the parliamentary party to force a contest, and with 403 MPs, that means 81 MPs. Any challenger would also need the backing of 5% of local branches and at least three party-affiliated groups, including two trade unions. If more than one MP meets the threshold, members would then vote on the candidates. Starmer does not need nominations himself and would appear automatically unless he stepped aside.
Burnham's supporters think that makes the next few days decisive. They believe he can gather enough backing to dislodge Starmer without a drawn-out leadership contest, and one ally said the by-election win had smashed through every ceiling set for him. Another said Labour could not afford to ignore what the result had shown, describing it as evidence that there is another way to keep a Labour government going.
But not every Labour MP wants that route. Some want Burnham to face the scrutiny of a full leadership race, with his ideas put through the wringer before anyone hands over the keys. That split matters because a coronation-style transfer depends on momentum and discipline, while a contested race would test whether Burnham can turn support into formal nominations quickly enough to force Starmer onto the ballot.
Burnham's camp also sees a broader opening. His team believes he is Labour's best hope of stopping Nigel Farage's party winning the next general election, and they argue Starmer's grip is weakening after a string of policy U-turns left him deeply unpopular with the electorate. Starmer, who led Labour to a landslide general election victory in 2024, has said he will fight any challenge and has already faced warnings from loyal ministers that he could still be forced out through resignations if he does not set out a timetable for departure.
The next move is now close at hand. Burnham and Wes Streeting are expected to speak this weekend, while sources close to Streeting say he also has the numbers to challenge Starmer and remains determined to do so, though he will not trigger a contest before the weekend to let Starmer reflect on his position. By then, Burnham will know whether the surge after Makerfield is enough to turn a loud threat into a formal contest.
