Counting was under way in the Makerfield byelection on Friday night, with Labour reported to be ahead of Reform UK by around 2,500 votes as the result moved toward an expected 3am finish.
That made the count more than a local scrap. In the North of England, every seat that shifts is read for what it says about Labour and Reform UK, and this one was being watched closely because a win there could feed pressure on the prime minister from Labour’s own side.
A Reform UK source said the party currently expected to lose by about 2,500 votes. But the public face of the party sounded less beaten down, saying the race was fairly close and that no one was running away with it. The same spokesperson also denied reports that Nigel Farage had left Makerfield, saying they had just been on the phone to him and that he was still in the constituency.
For Labour, the early read was sharper still. A senior source said it did not look like Restore Britain had been able to turn out its vote to the level some had predicted, and said Rupert Lowe’s party could possibly end up on 7% of the vote, with anything higher seen as very unlikely. That was at odds with belief that Lowe was claiming 10%.
Sarah Pochin, speaking on GB News, said her party would be very happy to come a strong second in Makerfield. It was a telling line because a strong second is not the language of a party certain it has converted a protest into a breakthrough, even if it remains determined to frame the night as tighter than rivals suggest.
Earlier in the evening, polling had closed in the Makerfield byelection, and the count soon became a test of whether Reform UK could translate attention into votes. Josh Halliday, ’s North of England editor, linked the outcome to the wider argument over whether a win for Labour in Makerfield would help force Starmer to step aside. The only question left is whether the final tally confirms Labour’s lead or narrows the gap enough for Reform UK to claim a moral victory around an expected defeat.
