A potential tropical cyclone is now tracking just off the Texas coast and is expected to make landfall over southwestern Louisiana on Wednesday evening, putting parts of Louisiana in the path of heavy rain and tropical storm-force winds. The National Weather Service said Baton Rouge remains under a flood watch until 7 a.m. Friday.
That timing is why people are watching New Orleans forecasts so closely on Wednesday: the system is expected to reach the coast in the evening, then turn inland while rain keeps falling through the night. The heaviest rain is expected ahead of the track of Potential Tropical Cyclone One, with generally 5 to 10 inches possible near and just north of its path and isolated totals near 20 inches.
The forecast is not limited to rainfall. The National Weather Service said tropical storm-force winds are expected near the coast, while inland areas could still feel a brisk south wind of 5 to 10 mph with gusts as high as 25 mph on Wednesday. By Wednesday night, winds could gust as high as 40 mph, the chance of rain rises to 80%, and another 2 to 3 inches of rain may fall.
What gives the forecast its edge is how much water could come down in a short stretch of time. A 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms is expected on Wednesday afternoon, with storms continuing through Wednesday night and into the early morning hours Thursday. On Thursday, showers and storms are expected mainly before 1 p.m., and some of them could produce heavy rainfall again even as the center of the disturbance moves farther inland and is expected to dissipate over central Mississippi by Thursday morning.
That is the part that makes the watch line so uneasy: the center may weaken by Thursday morning, but the water threat does not end with it. Baton Rouge stays under a flood watch until 7 a.m. Friday, and Friday still carries a 70% chance of rain during the day, followed by more rain possible through the weekend. The National Weather Service’s advice is blunt because the risk is blunt too: turn around, don’t drown when encountering flooded roads, and remember that most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
St. James Parish Schools and Zachary Community Schools are both closed Thursday, a sign that the forecast is already changing plans before the worst of the rain arrives. For now, the question is not whether the system will bring weather to Louisiana. It is how much water falls before the watch expires Friday morning.
That is the measure that will matter most by the end of the week, because a storm can lose its center and still leave behind the flooding that decides the story.
