Independent voters who once helped lift Donald Trump back to power are moving away from him, and the drop is showing up most sharply among those without a college degree. -NORC polling analysis found that about half of those independents viewed Trump positively around the 2024 election. This spring, that share had fallen to about one-quarter.
The shift matters now because independents are no longer a side note in American politics. More Americans than ever describe themselves that way, and the latest numbers suggest a bloc that helped shape the 2024 race is becoming harder for Trump to hold as his second term wears on.
Tafari Torres, a senior research associate, said the compiled polling covered nearly two dozen -NORC surveys from July 2024 through April 2026, tracking opinion through the last six months of 2024, Trump’s first 100 days back in office, the summer of 2025 when the Big Beautiful Bill passed, last fall’s government shutdown and the beginning of the Iran war. Across that stretch, the trend line moved in one direction: down.
The education gap that existed among independents before Trump took office has now been wiped out. Independents with and without a college degree now hold similarly negative views of him, a change that cuts against the coalition he built in 2024, when independents were among the groups that shifted toward him.
That reversal is the most important part of the polling. Trump gained ground with independents in the presidential election, but the -NORC analysis shows that support has steadily eroded during his second term. The decline has not been limited to one slice of the electorate, either. Trump’s standing has also dropped among Black and Hispanic independents, widening the warning signs for Republicans.
The one question the polling does not answer is why the turn is happening. It does show the result: independents are now broadly negative on Trump, regardless of education level, and that leaves Republicans with a shrinking cushion among a voting group that often decides close national elections. If the slide continues into the midterm period, it could be one of the clearest signs yet that Trump’s 2024 gains among independents are fading faster than his party can replace them.
