Southern Wisconsin is in line for a serious severe weather day Thursday, with forecasters warning of tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail and localized flash flooding as storms build later in the day. The Storm Prediction Center kept an Enhanced Risk, Level 3 of 5, in place for severe thunderstorms across the region.
The search for tornado Kenosha is being driven by the same setup that has forecasters watching southern Wisconsin so closely: a northward-lifting warm front that could trigger explosive thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon. That boundary could help storms start as discrete, rotating supercells before they grow into larger clusters capable of widespread damaging winds.
The National Weather Service also issued a Flood Watch for all southeast Wisconsin from noon until 11 p.m. Thursday, a reminder that the threat is not limited to wind and hail. Excessive rain and runoff may flood rivers, creeks, streams and other low-lying or flood-prone areas, while poor drainage and urban neighborhoods could also take on water if storms repeatedly track over the same places.
That flooding concern matters because it was not expected to be the primary hazard. Still, forecasters said repeated rounds of storms could overwhelm drainage systems, especially in cities, even as the bigger picture remains the potential for rotating storms early and damaging wind later. Gusts could exceed 70 mph once storms merge into larger clusters.
The exact placement of the atmospheric boundaries will decide where the greatest tornado threat develops, and that is the part officials cannot pin down yet. Everyone across southern Wisconsin was told to stay weather-aware Thursday afternoon and evening, keep multiple ways to receive warnings and be ready to move to shelter quickly if severe weather approaches.
For now, the clearest answer is that Thursday is the day to watch. The storm risk spans from the first rotating cells near the warm front to the later wind and flooding threat, and the communities in southeast Wisconsin under the Flood Watch will need to pay attention through late evening.
