Grant Holmes is set to start for the Braves against the White Sox in Chicago, giving Atlanta a new plan on the mound the day after it swept Pittsburgh. The matchup also puts the Acuña brothers on opposite sides of the field, a rare wrinkle in a game that now has a clear pitching question at its center.
Holmes has held up well on the surface this season with a 3.86 ERA, a 1.317 FIP and a 21.2 percent strikeout rate, but the deeper numbers point to trouble if Chicago can force him to keep working. His 4.49 xERA,.256 BABIP against and 83.3 left on base percentage suggest some good fortune, and hitters have managed only a.569 OPS the first time through the order before jumping to 1.010 the second time. Nine of his 12 home runs allowed have come in that second trip, which is exactly where the Braves may start needing help.
That matters because the White Sox have enough offense at home to punish a starter who loses his edge. They are fourth in MLB in home runs and seventh in runs per game despite a 4.38 ERA, so Atlanta cannot simply coast through the middle innings. If Holmes runs into the same second-turn problems, Didier Fuentes may be asked for long relief after his off day, turning this from a standard start into a test of how long the Braves can keep the game in Holmes’ hands.
Chicago is also sending out a different look than the one it first planned. Brandon Eisert was announced as the opener, after originally slated starter Erick Fedde was pushed back, and Eisert did hold Atlanta hitless in 1.1 innings last season. Fedde’s form gives the Braves reason to stay alert anyway: he has a 4.94 ERA, a 4.50 xERA and numbers that place him in the bottom tier of MLB in both strikeout rate and walk rate, even before Atlanta’s top bats come into the picture.
That side of the matchup has its own edge. Ronald Acuña has three home runs and a 1.277 OPS in 19 at-bats against Fedde, Austin Riley has a.982 OPS with one homer in 22 at-bats, and Michael Harris has a.667 average with a 1.445 OPS in nine at-bats. The opening innings should tell the story quickly: either Holmes gets through Chicago’s first and second looks and hands off a lead, or the Braves are forced into the long part of the night sooner than they want.
