Silver Bulletin has published a World Cup games predictions page that it says will update throughout the 2026 tournament, giving readers a running forecast for every match and every stage. The page is built to change as results come in, with fresh estimates after each match result, tiebreaker scenario and even injury.
The timing matters because the 2026 World Cup begins June 11, when Mexico meets South Africa in the opening match. For readers trying to follow how the bracket could shift, the new page is designed as a live guide rather than a one-time forecast.
Silver Bulletin said the probabilities behind the page come from 100,000 simulations of the tournament. It also said it launched PELE, its international soccer rating model, last month and that the system combines elements of its earlier SPI model with player market values, home-field advantage and a Tilt rating for each team.
To see how that approach might hold up, Silver Bulletin ran PELE back to the first World Cup in Uruguay in 1930. On retrospectively calculated pre-tournament ratings, favorites went 8-3 in the first 11 World Cup tournaments, but since then they have gone 3-8. The last pre-tournament No. 1 to win was Spain in 2010, a reminder that the safest-looking pick has not always survived the tournament.
That caution matters now because the 2026 event arrives with 48 teams and more moving parts than past editions. Silver Bulletin also placed France and Spain essentially level as co-favorites in prediction markets at around 17 percent, but its page will be refreshed as the matches unfold. The company has said the tournament is already drawing controversy around ticket prices, expansion and geopolitical disputes spilling into soccer, which only adds more uncertainty to a forecast that is meant to keep changing.
The first test for the model comes quickly. Mexico and South Africa will open the tournament on June 11, and from there the page is set to track every turn that matters. For anyone following the world cup games one by one, the answer Silver Bulletin is offering is not a final verdict but a live one.
