Republicans were watching six state primary elections on Tuesday for signs of momentum heading into the 2026 campaign, with voters casting ballots in California, Iowa, New Mexico and other states that could shape contests for Congress, governorships and local power.
The party’s interest is not abstract. In California, Republican hopefuls Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco are trying to break through in a state where Democrats have long held the upper hand, while Spencer Pratt is running as an independent with Republican support and a Trump endorsement in the Los Angeles City Hall bid. Pratt is also taking his candidacy to the ballot box against incumbent Democrat Karen Bass in the Los Angeles mayor race, a race that has drawn extra attention because of how unusual it is for a viral social media figure to be folded into a high-stakes local contest.
In Iowa, Trump-backed Rep. Randy Feenstra is being watched as a measure of the former president’s grip on Republican primary voters in the governor’s race. Trump-backed Rep. Ashley Hinson is running to fill the seat being vacated by outgoing Sen. Joni Ernst, while Democrats are looking to flip the Senate seat with either state Rep. Josh Turek or state Sen. Zach Wahls. Those contests matter because they offer an early read on whether Republican backing still translates into primary strength in races that could echo well beyond Tuesday.
The sharper contrast, though, is in New Mexico, where Republicans are still trying to find openings in a state that usually leans blue. Former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland is facing Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman in a race that could shape the next phase of Democratic politics in the state. Haaland would become the first Native American woman elected governor of any state if she wins in November, while Bregman is campaigning as a law-and-order Democrat with a prosecutor’s profile. Republicans there have their own three-way governor primary, with former Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull, medical cannabis entrepreneur Duke Rodriguez and business owner Doug Turner competing for the nomination.
That same New Mexico ballot shows the friction inside the broader Republican push. The party is searching for breakthroughs in blue states while the Republican National Committee is attacking California’s election system as untrustworthy, saying its staff is on the ground watching every legal ballot cast Tuesday and circulating an election integrity whistleblower form from California Project the Vote. Joe Gruters said California “continues to be the model of how not to run elections,” called it a “dumpster-fire system,” and said the RNC is waging its most aggressive election integrity operation to date, with more than 150 lawsuits in 34 states. He added that voters deserve timely results and elections they can trust.
There is also a hard edge to the New Mexico Senate race. Sen. Ben Ray Luján is seeking another term against Democrat primary challenger Matt Dodson, but the Republican side has a separate problem: Larry Marker is running as a certified write-in candidate and must receive 2,351 votes to become the GOP nominee. If he falls short, no Republican Senate candidate will appear on the general election ballot. That makes Tuesday less a routine primary day than a test of whether Republicans can turn scattered, unusual contests into real November footing before the 2026 general election locks in the field.
