Xavier Becerra moved into the lead in California’s crowded governor’s race, but the gap at the top is still narrow enough that the order could change before voters cast ballots on June 2. A UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times and released Thursday found Becerra at 25% among likely voters, ahead of Steve Hilton at 21% and Tom Steyer at 19%.
The survey, conducted from May 19 to 24, included all 61 gubernatorial candidates on the ballot and found 7% of voters still undecided. Becerra was at 5% support in an early March Berkeley IGS poll, showing how quickly the race has shifted in the final stretch before the primary. Chad Bianco slipped by 5 percentage points and fell into fourth place, while Katie Porter dropped to 7%. San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and state Supt. of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond all remained in the single digits.
The numbers matter because California’s primary is not just about first place. Only the top two finishers on June 2 advance to the November general election, regardless of party affiliation, so the fight is really for two slots. Likely Democratic voters favored Becerra over Steyer by 11 percentage points, while voters with no party preference were evenly split among Becerra, Steyer and Hilton. Among likely Republican voters, Hilton led Bianco by almost 2 to 1.
That split maps onto the state’s geography and its voter blocs. Becerra had an edge over Steyer among women and Latino voters, while Steyer held an advantage among Black voters. Hilton was favored over the two Democrats among self-identified libertarians and among voters in Orange County, the Central Valley and the northern coast and Sierra region.
Mark DiCamillo, the poll director, said it was still unclear which candidates would finish first and second on June 2, and he noted that Democratic turnout was noticeably lower than in past primary elections. He said the poll assumed Democrats would turn out in the final week after the survey ended and begin to make up ground on what looked like an early lead for Hilton.
That late surge is what makes this california governor race hard to call. California voters were already mailed ballots, but many had not returned them or dropped them off at voting locations, leaving the final count to be shaped by a week in which turnout, not name recognition alone, may decide who survives. The contest to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom has lacked a clear front-runner for more than a quarter of a century, and this year’s race is unfolding in what the state and nation alike are being told is a perilous moment. The latest poll suggests the answer to who advances is not settled yet, but Becerra is now the one setting the pace.
