Bitcoin was trading 41% below its all-time high from October last year as of May 29, a steep reset for the market’s biggest digital asset while the S&P 500 was up 13% over the same stretch. For investors tracking the bitcoin price usd, the gap is the main story: the token that once raced to fresh records was still far from that peak even after a decade in which it has soared more than 13,700%.
The timing matters because Bitcoin’s last halving came in April 2024, and traders have long watched the asset through that four-year rhythm. In the three cycles before this one, Bitcoin had already spent time in a bear market by more than halfway past the halving point, which is why the current drawdown is being read against a familiar pattern rather than as a stand-alone slide.
The previous major bear market ran from the peak in November 2021 to the bottom in November 2022, when Bitcoin sank 76%. That slump was followed by a violent rebound: the price ripped 154% higher in 2023 and gained another 119% in 2024, a reminder that deep declines have not kept Bitcoin down for long when the cycle turns. Bulls are leaning on that history now, even as the latest move leaves the market far below where it stood in the autumn.
What makes the current pullback harder to dismiss is that the usual long-term case for Bitcoin has not broken down. Bitcoin has never been hacked, its hash rate is close to all-time highs, its hard supply cap is still intact, and innovation continues across the wider ecosystem. That gives the asset a sturdier base than a typical speculative trade, but it does not explain why the price has lagged so badly while broader stocks have advanced.
The possible reasons for the slide range from quantum computing fears to liquidation pressure after President Trump’s tariff announcements, profit-taking by long-term holders, higher interest-rate expectations and capital moving into the AI boom. Bitcoin is a decentralized digital asset with no management team and no quarterly earnings update to point to, so investors are left to judge the move through price, liquidity and the cycle itself.
That leaves the market with a clear but unresolved question: whether this drawdown is another pause inside Bitcoin’s familiar post-halving path, or the start of a longer wait for the next surge. History argues for recovery, but as of May 29 the price was still 41% under its October high, and the next catalyst has not yet shown itself.
