The NBA approved a new 3-2-1 draft lottery plan that expands the lottery from 14 teams to 16 and changes how much help the league’s weakest teams can get. Under the new system, the three worst records will no longer have the huge edge they once did, and the rule is set to stay in place for at least three seasons.
Byron Spruell said the league had reached the point where it had to act after Adam Silver set the tone in December and the governors spent the months that followed talking through what could be done. The point was to blunt tanking, the late-season habit that has been dragging on the product and the league’s credibility, and the new structure goes after it directly by spreading the odds more widely.
The numbers show how sharply the system changes. The three worst records now have a combined 15.4 percent chance at a top-three pick, down from 40.1 percent under the old format, while still carrying a 61 percent shot at a top-10 selection and a 39 percent chance of landing picks No. 11 or 12. The remaining seven non-playoff teams now share a 24.1 percent chance at a top-three pick and a 39 percent chance at a top-five pick, and the seventh and eighth playoff seeds are now part of the mix as well, with a combined 8.7 percent chance at a top-three pick.
That shift matters because it reaches farther into the standings than the old lottery did. Teams finishing seventh or eighth in the playoff race can now fall into the lottery, and the new system also blocks clubs from taking No. 1 overall in consecutive seasons or from picking in the top five in three straight drafts. For front offices, that changes the calculation on whether a late skid is worth the risk.
The Grizzlies were the only team to vote against the plan, a nod that came even as the league framed the change as a fix for tanking. Memphis had a reason to object: the rule hurts a pick tied to its trade with Utah, and the Jazz already hold the second pick this year after selecting fifth in 2025. Utah is also barred from picking in the top five in 2027 under the new restrictions, which is exactly the kind of wrinkle that made this vote more than a clean anti-tanking statement.
Spruell said a few governors were especially vocal, but that ownership of the issue sat squarely with the board after months of discussion. The league did not move on instinct; it followed the process, he said, to get to the right answers. The system was approved by 29 governors and will be reviewed in 2029, which means the next three seasons will serve as the test case for whether a flatter lottery really changes behavior.
The unanswered question is whether teams will still try to lose on purpose when the payoff is smaller but not gone. The league has made the math less tempting, but it has not erased the incentive entirely, and Memphis will be watching closely if a 10th-worst record can still bring a 41.1 percent chance at a top-five pick under the new setup. If the new odds succeed, the NBA draft lottery will look less like a race to the bottom and more like a warning that even bad teams can no longer count on being rewarded for it.
