Donald Trump believes Cuba’s government could collapse by the summer, according to multiple insiders, and some inside his circle say the White House is treating the island as the next test of how far pressure can go after the war in Iran. The administration has not said it plans to invade, but it has quietly sharpened its focus on sanctions and on cutting off oil supplies from Venezuela.
A senior administration official described the approach as accelerationism, saying, “But we don’t want to kill off the regime just yet. There’s a method to this. It’s in stages.” The same official added, “Iran’s not finished, and the president is not in a rush.” Another senior administration official said the government still has a “pretty deep toolbox” for keeping pressure on Cuba and added, “More is on the way.”
That push comes as the administration insists there are no immediate plans to invade Cuba to force regime change. A senior official said U.S. Southern Command recently conducted a multiagency tabletop exercise to prepare for potential military action on the island, and another official said, “Everything is on the table, but no invasion is planned or imminent.” The same official said, “When POTUS says go, we’re ready for anything.”
The Cuba talk has been building for months inside Trump’s orbit. He has frequently suggested that the island could be his next target after the war in Iran, which has now dragged on for three months. Earlier this month, Politico reported that options under consideration ranged from a limited U.S. airstrike as a warning shot to a full-scale invasion, underscoring how far the discussion has moved beyond routine sanctions rhetoric.
Not everyone around Trump sounds eager to turn that talk into a shooting war. One adviser said the president is unlikely to launch an all-out conflict with Cuba and warned that it could become “a quagmire in the making.” The adviser added that Trump does not want “boots on the ground for more than 48 hours,” even as another described the president’s style as “classic Trump”: “Push your enemy off balance. It’s pressure, watch the response, apply more pressure, watch the response, apply more pressure,” the adviser said.
The result is a Cuba policy that is part economic squeeze, part military rehearsal and part political gamble. Senate Republicans have warned Trump against opening a fresh conflict while the Iran war continues, but the administration’s messaging suggests the pressure campaign is only getting tighter. If Trump is right that Cuba’s government is nearing collapse, the next question is whether that belief becomes strategy or warning.
