Texas barbecue is getting more expensive by the week as a historic cattle shortage pushes wholesale beef to record levels, forcing smokehouses to raise prices or rethink how much brisket they can sell. At Roegels Barbecue Co. in Houston, co-owner Michael Bailen said the cost of brisket has climbed to $5.56 per pound, and the shop has already lifted its menu price 6% to $35 per pound.
The pressure is spreading beyond one pit. Burnt Bean Co. in Seguin, Texas, has raised brisket to $38 per pound and may soon limit sales to one day a week, while five Texas barbecue closures this year include Brett's BBQ Shop, Kirby's BBQ, Sabar BBQ, Wright on Taco & BBQ and Sweetie Pie's Ribeyes. Daniel Vaughn, who follows Texas barbecue closely, has described beef prices as artificially low for years and said today’s menu numbers are starting to feel like “now not a crazy number to see on a menu.”
The latest price shock is easy to measure. Steak prices spiked 17% to $13.02 per pound in one year, while ground beef hit a record $6.90 per pound, up 19% from the year prior, according to Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis data from April. Wholesale brisket in Texas is up roughly 28% year over year. The U.S. cattle herd has now fallen to a 75-year low, squeezed by drought, labor shortages, dwindling ranch land and high operational costs.
That drop is changing the restaurant business in different ways. High-end Midwest steakhouse chain 801 Chophouse said in April that its Chapter 11 bankruptcy touched eight restaurants from Virginia to Colorado. By contrast, lower-cost operators are finding room to grow. Bloomin' Brands beat earnings estimates on May 6, reporting adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.67 versus a $0.58 estimate and revenue of $1.0597 billion, then saw shares rise 40% in one day. Texas Roadhouse also posted 12.8% revenue growth past $1.6 billion, with 7.1% same-store sales growth and 4.5% traffic growth.
Michael Bailen said consumers have been shifting toward cheaper value menu items, including pork, chicken and lower-cost beef cuts, and that pattern is showing up across casual dining. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s revised federal dietary guidelines centering red meat are also pushing consumption up, adding another demand-side pressure to a market already short on cattle. For barbecue operators, though, the bigger problem is that brisket is no longer a bargain cut; it is a premium item with a wholesale price to match.
That is why the business is dividing into winners and losers. The White House earlier this month paused two executive orders Trump was expected to sign aimed at bringing down record beef prices and rebuilding the U.S. cattle herd, including one that would have temporarily suspended the tariff-rate quota across all beef-exporting nations and another that would have expanded rancher loans and rolled back endangered wolf protections and cattle ear tag rules. Trump also proposed in October 2025 to increase Argentine beef imports after signing the February proclamation that temporarily quadrupled tariff-free Argentine beef. The result is a market where smokehouses are paying more, chain steakhouses are under strain, and value-focused restaurants are pulling in the traffic that higher-priced menus are losing.
For the people making barbecue for a living, the question is no longer whether beef will stay expensive. It is how long customers will keep paying $35 or $38 for a pound of brisket before the menu itself has to change.
