Navitas Semiconductor’s stock has surged roughly 1,000% over the past twelve months, even as its most recent quarter showed revenue falling nearly 40% from a year earlier. The company, known for gallium nitride and silicon carbide power semiconductors, said the decline reflected a deliberate exit from low-margin mobile and consumer business in China.
The stock move has been striking because the chips Navitas makes sit in systems that matter more as computing and electrification get heavier: data centers, EV chargers, solar inverters and industrial equipment. GaN and SiC run more efficiently than traditional silicon at higher voltages and temperatures, which is why the market keeps treating Navitas as a long-duration technology bet rather than a near-term earnings story.
That bet is being judged against a hard financial record. Gross margins started at 45% in 2021, fell to 31% in 2022, recovered to 39% in 2023 and drifted back toward 31% by 2025 as mobile business wound down before high-power revenue could fully scale. In the latest quarter, non-GAAP gross margin came in at 39%, a reminder that the product mix can look better even when total revenue shrinks.
The numbers behind the business are still rough. Navitas has burned between $44 million and $66 million in free cash flow every year since going public, with no year of positive free cash flow. Estimates point to gradual improvement from roughly minus $61 million in 2026 toward minus $22 million by 2028, but that still leaves the company in negative territory for years. Management has been explicit that breakeven depends on quarterly revenue scaling into the high-$30 million range.
There is, however, evidence that the growth engine is starting to turn. High-power revenue grew 35% year over year in the most recent quarter, and AI infrastructure was up 50% sequentially. Those figures matter because they hint at replacement demand beginning to arrive just as the company exits weaker lines, giving investors a reason to look past the revenue drop and toward a later stage of the cycle.
That is the tension in nvts stock now: the market is pricing a future in which Navitas becomes a core supplier to power-hungry systems, while the current financials still look like a company paying for that opportunity. The mid-case valuation target over 4.6 years is essentially $22, while the eight-year mid case points to around $81, implying roughly 17% annual returns. The bull case is even more aggressive, but it depends on the same question that hangs over every line in the model — whether high-power and AI-related demand can scale fast enough to carry the company from promise to profit.
