Intuit stock traded at $332 in extended trading after the company raised its full-year outlook, even as investors digested fresh signs that the low-end DIY tax business is losing ground. The shares were last quoted about 60% below their 52-week high of $813.
The company said it now expects fiscal 2026 non-GAAP earnings per share of $23.80 to $23.85 and revenue of $21.341 billion to $21.374 billion. That would leave the stock at about 14 times forward earnings, while the average analyst price target sits at $567.
For investors, the real story was not the upgraded forecast alone but the mix behind it. Intuit said TurboTax Live revenue is expected to grow 36% this year, with the assisted tax segment set to make up more than half of total TurboTax revenue. At the same time, the company acknowledged it lost on price in the price-sensitive do-it-yourself tax segment, a pressure point that has helped define the stock’s valuation.
That valuation now reflects a cluster of worries that have hung over the company for months: DIY tax weakness, AI disruption, FTC litigation and broader regulatory overhangs. Intuit has also been working to show that its growth engine is shifting toward higher-value services rather than the lowest-cost consumer tax market.
The rest of the business still points to solid demand. In the latest quarter, the mid-market online ecosystem accelerated to 38% revenue growth, total online payment volume rose 30%, and Global Business Solutions grew 17% excluding a slightly declining Mailchimp segment. Intuit also described itself as holding a 62% U.S. accounting market share and an 84% customer retention rate, two figures that help explain why investors continue to treat it as a durable franchise despite the pressure on its tax business.
The latest earnings update also included a sharper restructuring move: Intuit said it reduced its workforce by 17%. Management framed the cuts as a way to remove excess management layers and strip out duplication created by the Credit Karma integration, a sign that the company is still trying to reset its cost base even as it talks up growth. That combination — higher guidance, a leaner workforce and a weaker stance in DIY tax — leaves the market weighing whether the company’s pivot is enough to offset the risks that have already been priced into the shares.
The next test is whether the shift to assisted tax and business services can keep accelerating fast enough to justify the rebound management is projecting. If TurboTax Live keeps growing at the expected pace and the mid-market platform holds its momentum, Intuit can argue the new mix is sturdier than the old one. If not, the stock may stay trapped between a premium franchise reputation and a market that still thinks the biggest threat is the one it knows best.
