Bitcoin faces a possible retest of the $70,000 level after a recent pullback, as the market’s demand picture has turned weaker on both the speculative and spot sides. BTC’s total demand slipped into contraction on Monday, May 18, ending a run of steady upside that had been in place since early March.
The shift matters because the move higher into the $80,000 area had been powered by the strongest speculative demand growth of the cycle so far. That pace has now slowed sharply, while spot demand is contracting slightly faster than the cooling speculative flow, suggesting buyers are no longer absorbing supply with the same urgency.
Darkfost said the supply of BTC held at a loss by long-term holders now stands at 5.7 million BTC, a level that can be compared with 5.96 million BTC in 2015, 5.8 million BTC in 2019 and 6.8 million BTC in 2022. The figures place the current drawdown in a historical context that has previously marked major stress points for holders, even if the trend is not yet fully confirmed.
Darkfost also said a very large amount of BTC changed hands between $80,000 and $126,000, though a slight distortion came from the movement of 800,000 BTC from Coinbase on November 21 and 22. A separate spike of more than 740,000 BTC was seen around April 21 and 22. On Bitbo, the move from short-term holders to long-term holders is counted after 155 days, and after adjusting for the transfer activity the figure could still be around 4.93 million BTC.
That matters because the next 3 to 4 days could bring a quicker turn in LTH-related measures on platforms that use a 6-month threshold. BTC that moved around $84,500 will officially shift from short-term-holder supply into long-term-holder supply, giving analysts a fresh read on whether the current break in price action is becoming a deeper change in market structure. For now, the message from demand is simple: momentum has faded, and the $70,000 zone is back in view.
