Parts of the UK are heading toward a possible heatwave before the bank holiday weekend, with temperatures forecast to climb as high as 28C in south-eastern England on Thursday and Friday. After a spell of unusually cold weather last week, the change will be sharp enough to make it the warmest weather of the year so far if the forecast holds.
By Wednesday, temperatures are expected to rise to around 21C, and most places should be dry on Thursday and Friday. The forecast peak of 28C would top the 26.6C recorded at Kew Gardens during an unusually warm early April and is the sort of number that puts much of the country into summer territory, with 28C equal to 82F and 21C about 70F.
The warmth matters because the UK’s heatwave definition is not based on a single hot afternoon. The Met Office says a heatwave needs at least three consecutive days with daily maximum temperatures above a county-specific threshold, which is 28C in Greater London and 25C in Northern Ireland. On that measure, a few places could qualify during Friday, Saturday and Sunday, with counties such as Herefordshire and Worcestershire looking most likely to meet the mark.
The shift follows a run of showers that were widespread earlier in the week, when south-westerly winds blew in from the Atlantic. Later in the week, the wind is expected to turn southerly, and high pressure to the east on Friday should help draw in a warm breeze. A weather front threatens rain to the west, which means the weekend picture is not as simple as the headline numbers suggest.
That is the catch in the forecast: the warm spell is real, but whether it becomes a true heatwave depends on how much rain develops over the bank holiday weekend. If showers stay limited, parts of England and possibly other areas could spend three straight days above their threshold. If they spread farther, the country gets a brief burst of early summer warmth instead.
Either way, the weather will feel like a clear break from the cold of last week. The next point to watch is not whether temperatures rise — they already are — but how many places can hold the heat long enough to cross the Met Office line.
