Parts of the UK are heading for a possible heat wave as temperatures are forecast to climb to 28C ahead of the bank holiday weekend, with the warmest weather of the year so far expected later this week. After a run of unusually cold days, the country is set to move back toward average temperatures before the mercury rises again.
Showers have been widespread to start the week, and the forecast turns drier after midweek even though rain remains in the picture. By Wednesday, temperatures are expected to reach up to 21C, and most places should be dry on Thursday and Friday, when south-eastern parts of England could see 28C. That would top the 26.6C recorded at Kew Gardens during an unusually warm spell in early April.
The change is being driven mainly by wind direction. Last week felt so cold because the wind was blowing from the north. At the beginning of this week, south-westerly winds are blowing in from the Atlantic, and later in the week the wind will be coming from the south. That shift is what is pushing temperatures up, with the source describing the maximum temperatures forecast for Friday and Sunday as the key gauge for how hot it will get.
The Met Office defines a heat wave in the UK as at least three consecutive days with daily maximum temperatures above a county-specific threshold, rather than one national number. In Greater London, that threshold is 28C, while Northern Ireland’s is 25C. A few places could meet that definition between Friday and Sunday, with Herefordshire and Worcestershire looking most likely to do so.
Rain is still part of the outlook, and that matters. Whether showers develop over the bank holiday weekend will shape how far and how long the warm spell lasts. If the dry, southerly pattern holds, the UK will see its first real burst of summer-like heat this year. If showers return, the peak may be shorter and more localised, but the warm up itself is already set.
