The Philadelphia Phillies and Pittsburgh Pirates were set to open a three-game series Friday at 6:40 p.m. ET at PNC Park, with Aaron Nola drawing the start for Philadelphia in a matchup that has leaned toward low scoring. The series opener lands with both clubs carrying recent trends that point in the same direction: the Under.
Nola enters with a 5.48 ERA, but his last two outings have looked sharper. He has given up just three earned runs across those appearances, and his road ERA sits at 4.94. That matters because Philadelphia has hit the Under in four straight contests, and three of the last four meetings with Pittsburgh have gone Under as well. Four of the last five matchups between the clubs stayed Under, giving this opener a familiar statistical shape.
There is still pressure on Nola to keep that pattern intact. The Phillies have not scored more than three runs in any game in their most recent series against the Boston Red Sox, which has only added to the sense that run support may be limited again. Philadelphia’s offense has not been the only side searching for consistency, though. The Pirates have won three straight against the Phillies dating back to last season, and they come into this game after scoring seven runs on Thursday.
Braxton Ashcraft is expected to start for Pittsburgh, and his numbers suggest a similar kind of game. He owns a 2.77 ERA, has a 3.42 ERA at home and has allowed more than two earned runs only once this season. He has given up just one run across his last two starts. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, is sixth in runs scored, but its recent profile still fits the betting angle that has followed this matchup. The Pirates also had not faced the Phillies in 2026 before this opener, which gives both teams a fresh look in a series that already carries a clear trend line.
For Philadelphia, the question is whether Nola’s better recent stretch is enough to steady a rotation arm whose season numbers are still elevated. For Pittsburgh, it is whether Ashcraft can extend a run of efficiency against a Phillies team that has struggled to break out at the plate. The numbers point toward another tight game, and the history between these teams suggests that runs may again be at a premium.
