Nathan Cleary has been tipped to leave Australia if he can steer New South Wales through this year’s State of Origin series, with Andrew Johns predicting the Penrith star will be out of the NRL by 2028.
Johns said he could only see Cleary staying at one club, but believes the halfback’s next move would more likely be overseas than to another NRL side. “Nathan will stay (at Penrith). I can only see him being a one-club man,” Johns said, before adding: “I think there would be more interest in going to England. Whether there's an option in rugby union in Europe, or playing in the Super League over there.”
The comments came as Cleary’s future continued to hover over Penrith, with his deal running until the end of 2027 and the player himself saying he is happy to see what is out there. Johns said the 26-year-old had already done almost everything available in the game, and that a big Origin series could be the last box to tick before any move away from the NRL.
“He's done everything here, we know that. And this year, if he owns Origin, then that is ticked off,” Johns said. “I know my mate Simon Moran from Warrington, who owns Warrington, would move heaven and earth and hell to get Nathan there.”
Cleary’s record in the arena that Johns singled out is mixed but substantial. He has played 17 games for New South Wales, with eight wins and nine losses, and has been part of series that swung in both directions: Queensland won the 2020 series with Cleary involved, while New South Wales won the deciders in 2019 and 2024 without him. He already has four premierships, including the 2023 Grand Final with Penrith, but Origin remains the piece of the resume that still invites argument.
That is why Johns framed this year as decisive. If Cleary leads New South Wales to a series win, the former Origin great said, then “Nathan owns Origin” and there would be little left to prove in Australia. From there, the pull of England, Europe, or a one-club finish in Penrith becomes the central question around the game’s best halfback.
The timing also matters because Penrith are heading toward a period of change. Ivan Cleary is stepping down from coaching duties next year, and Peter Wallace will replace Nathan Cleary on a three-year deal after his departure. Jarome Luai has already committed to terms with the PNG Chiefs, another sign that the club’s core is no longer fixed in place for the long term.
Johns also linked the future to the club-shifting consequences of a great player’s departure, comparing it with the challenge of following an icon. “If you have a look at Wayne Bennett, when Wayne has left clubs - notably St George Illawarra, they sort of dipped, when he left Newcastle, they had a big dip - it's like following Bradman into bat really,” he said.
For now, Cleary is still at Penrith and still chasing another Origin title. But with his contract ending in 2027, and Johns publicly forecasting an exit in 2028, the game’s most decorated modern halfback is already being talked about like a player whose next chapter may be written far beyond the NRL.
