A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for Anchorage and the Kenai Peninsula as snow is expected to move across Southcentral Alaska from Saturday night through Sunday. The forecast points to a messy weekend for travel, but the amounts could swing sharply depending on how the storm tracks and when warmer air arrives.
For Anchorage, early model trends call for 1 to 4 inches of snow, which would still add to a season that has seen only 0.9 inches so far. That is more than 9 inches below normal for this point in the season, so even a modest snowfall would stand out after a dry start to winter. People in Anchorage and the Kenai are watching this one closely because the first meaningful snow can change road conditions quickly, especially when temperatures are near freezing.
The heaviest snow is expected farther south and east, with close to a foot possible near Portage, including through Turnagain Pass. Snow is expected to begin near Girdwood, Turnagain Arm, Portage and the Eastern Kenai during the afternoon and evening hours Saturday, then build into Anchorage, Eagle River and the rest of the Kenai later Saturday evening. Areas of the Eastern Kenai Peninsula, through Turnagain Pass and into Portage, are the most likely to see the biggest totals, while the Western Kenai and the Anchorage bowl carry lower confidence.
That lower confidence is the part that matters most. If the storm track slips farther south, Anchorage and parts of the Kenai could end up with much less snow than the current forecast suggests, and some areas could see little to no accumulation. If a band of snow stalls over the Western Kenai, those areas could finish with more snow than Anchorage despite the watch covering both regions.
The most likely path is snow through Saturday night, followed by a gradual transition as temperatures warm into Sunday. In Anchorage, temperatures are expected to start in the mid 20s Sunday morning and rise to near freezing late in the day, which is why the forecast still leaves room for a change in snow totals. Warmer weather is likely Monday, but the sharper question for travelers is how much snow falls before then and whether the weekend system reaches Anchorage sooner or later than expected.
