Georgia can clinch a spot in the SEC championship game this weekend, but only if it does its part and gets help elsewhere. Beat Missouri, and three of Alabama, Texas, Kentucky or Tennessee must lose for the Bulldogs to lock up a place in Atlanta.
That is why SEC championship scenarios are driving the conversation now. Georgia is the only SEC team entering the weekend with one conference loss, while Alabama, Texas, Kentucky and Tennessee all have two. In other words, the Bulldogs control their own road back to Atlanta, and the path starts with Missouri.
The bigger picture gives the scenario more weight. If Georgia beats Missouri and No. 17 South Carolina in the next two weeks, it will reach its sixth consecutive SEC championship game. It has won the last two title games, and another appearance would put it in position to join Florida and Alabama as the only programs to win three straight SEC championship games.
Khalil Barnes said the focus inside the program is narrower than the bracket math outside it. “To be honest, it would just mean that we did our job, you know what I mean? We’ve got two more games to get there, so that means that we had a successful game this week, hopefully a successful game this weekend, the week after that,” he said. He added that Georgia cannot afford to look too far ahead because the SEC is so competitive. “If we mess around and think about that, we won’t even be in that game. So we’ve just gotta keep taking care of business one week at a time.”
That caution fits the complexity of the tiebreakers. Alabama is the highest-ranked of the two-loss teams in the latest College Football Playoff standings, but it also has conference games left against Vanderbilt and Auburn and no remaining game against a team in those rankings. Georgia owns the head-to-head edge over Alabama after a 20-17 win, Tennessee beat Alabama, and Texas still has LSU, Arkansas and Texas A&M ahead. Kentucky plays Florida this week and then travels to Missouri, which means the math can still shift in several directions.
There is one more wrinkle that keeps Georgia from treating the clinch like a formality. If Georgia, Tennessee and Alabama all finish with two conference losses, Georgia and Tennessee would play for the SEC championship. If Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky and Texas all finish tied with two losses, the decision would come down to conference opponents’ winning percentage. Heading into the weekend, Alabama and Kentucky have the two highest marks there, Tennessee is third and Georgia is fourth, so the Bulldogs still need help even while they sit in the strongest position. The cleanest conclusion is also the hardest one for Georgia to ignore: beat Missouri, keep stacking wins, and the rest of the SEC championship scenarios may take care of themselves.
