Jake Sanderson has turned his return to the Ottawa Senators lineup into a steady source of offense, piling up 10 points over nine games and giving Tuesday’s Capitals vs Senators matchup a clear player to watch. Ottawa goes in as a 53% favorite with a 6.5 total, the kind of setting that puts a premium on the few skaters most likely to create a scoring chance.
That is why Sanderson keeps drawing attention. He has 10 points through nine games he has started and finished this year, has points in five of six games when Ottawa has been favored, and the projection for a point sits at 56 percent. Most of that production has come at 5-on-5, which matters because that is where Washington has been vulnerable. The Capitals are 27th in goals against per 60 during 5-on-5 play, and they have also been 25th in shots and 31st on the power play, a profile that can keep a game close without making it especially dangerous offensively.
Ottawa’s own numbers explain why the matchup still looks tight. The Senators are 10th in goals against even though they have played half their games without Linus Ullmark, who ranks third in Goals Saved Above Expected per 60. Before Tuesday, Ottawa had played three games following two days off this season, and those games produced an average of 4.6 goals. All three came without Ullmark, which is part of the reason the club’s defensive results have held up even while its goaltending has been interrupted. It also helps explain why the 6.5 total does not automatically turn into a shootout.
There is still a wrinkle in the setup. The Senators are being priced as a team that can control the game, but the absence of Linus Ullmark has not erased their ability to keep scores down, and that makes the offensive side of the board matter even more. William Eklund remains on a long-term injury, leaving Ottawa to lean on the players who are driving play right now. Sanderson is one of them, and Dylan Cozens adds another layer: he is averaging well over nine shots on goal per 60 minutes with Tim Stutzle as his center at 5-on-5, lives around the net on the power play, and is one shot on goal behind the team lead on the man advantage. He has generated shots at a higher clip with Stutzle than with any other regular Senators forward, which gives Ottawa multiple routes to a point even in a low-scoring game.
That is the balance heading into Tuesday: Ottawa’s defense has been steady enough to support a low total, Washington’s offense has been muted enough to keep it that way, and Sanderson has been productive enough to matter in a game that may be decided by one clean shift at even strength. If the Senators keep suppressing chances the way they have in rested spots, the better question is not whether the game stays close. It is which Ottawa skater breaks it open first.
