Mitch Raposo will step into the Octagon against Marcos Degli at UFC Vegas 124 on Saturday, November 7, 2026, with the betting line already leaning hard toward Degli. Raposo is listed at +201, while Marcos Delli — the name attached to Degli in search traffic — is priced at -240.
That price matters because this is not a mismatch built on a huge gap in recent activity. Raposo, 28, enters at 11-3-0 and both men compete at 125 lbs. He stands 5'5" with a 64-inch wingspan. Degli is 26, 15-3-0, 5'6" with a 67-inch reach. On paper, the cage should not look one-sided before the opening bell.
The numbers explain why the market still expects Degli to control the fight. Raposo lands 1.91 significant strikes per minute and Degli lands 1.95, a nearly identical pace. The difference is in efficiency and damage control: Raposo connects on 38% of his significant strikes and absorbs 2.92 per minute, while Degli connects on 67% and gives up just 0.51. Raposo prevents 60% of the significant strikes thrown his way; Degli defends 75%.
The grappling line pulls in the same direction. Raposo averages 1.98 takedowns per three rounds, hits 36% of his attempts and stops 68% of the takedowns he faces. Degli completes half of his takedown attempts and thwarts only 15% of shots sent at him, but he also hunts submissions more aggressively, going for 4.6 per 15 minutes compared with Raposo's 0.9 per three rounds. That gives the favorite a finish path even if the stand-up stays close for stretches.
Raposo comes in off a unanimous decision over Allan Nascimento in round 3, a fight that showed volume and durability more than pop. He landed 54 of 108 total strikes and 38 of 89 significant strikes, while Nascimento landed 98 of 195 total strikes and 58 of 142 significant strikes. Degli, meanwhile, submitted Paris Moran with a rear naked choke in round 2 after landing 19 of 28 strikes, including 9 of 17 to the head. Moran was perfect on the significant strikes he tried at a distance, but Degli still found the finish.
That is the friction inside the betting line. Degli is the clear favorite, yet both fighters arrive with similar recent striking volume, which is usually where underdog interest starts to build. The market appears to be weighing accuracy, defense and finishing rate more heavily than output alone. For Raposo, the path is to turn this into a longer, messier fight. For Degli, Saturday is a chance to make the numbers look obvious once the cage closes.
What happens next is simple: the odds will settle only when UFC Vegas 124 starts, and the first few minutes should tell bettors whether the favorite’s efficiency is real or whether Raposo can drag Marcos Delli into a closer fight than the price suggests.
